Leading analyst Kuo forecasts 10% YOY iPhone sales growth for Q1 2020, helped by new ‘iPhone SE 2’

TF International Securities’ analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has forecast Apple will sell around 10 percent more iPhones in the first quarter of 2020, thanks to rampant demand for the iPhone 11 and the rumored new “iPhone SE 2” expected to launch in the same period.

Kuo estimates Apple will ship between 70 and 75 million devices from its newly introduced iPhone 11 series in 2019, believing that figure may have been higher if not for supply constraints. Additionally, the report suggests the iPhone 11 will outperform last year’s iPhone XR, with 37-40 million unit shipments expected for the iPhone 11, compared to 25 million for iPhone XR in the equivalent time period last year.

Apple is forecasted to sell fewer iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max devices than the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max it replaces. The report claims Apple will sell around 40 million iPhone 11 Pro/Pro Max units before the end of the year, compared to 43 million iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max devices sold during the same period last year.

We expect that combined iPhone shipments in 1Q20 will grow around 10% YoY thanks to the iPhone 11’s replacement demand boosted by more affordable prices and iPhone SE2’s shipments starting in 1Q20. We estimate that iPhone shipment in 1Q20 will be 45–50mn units (iPhone 11 Pro series and iPhone 11 to be 13–15 and 22–24mn units, respectively), which is better than around 42mn units of iPhone shipments in 1Q19 (iPhone XS series and iPhone XR to be around 12 and 14mn units, respectively).

Kuo predicts the purported new “iPhone SE 2” will give Apple the boost it needs to achieve a 10% YOY iPhone sales growth for Q1 2020. In a previous report, Kuo claimed the new device would launch in March 2020 with a similar design to the one found on the iPhone 8 – an A13 chip, a single-lens rear camera, and a 128GB storage option priced at $650.00.