Apple may be about to change the foldable phone market almost overnight

Apple has arrived late to foldable smartphones, but that may not matter. Industry forecasts suggest iPhone Duo could turn Apple into one of the world’s biggest foldable phone manufacturers within only a few months.

TrendForce estimates Apple could ship around five million iPhone Duo units before the end of 2026, giving the company approximately 24.8% of the foldable smartphone market for the year.

For a device that does not launch until October 23, that would be an unusually rapid entrance into an established category.

Apple doesn’t need to beat Samsung immediately

Samsung is still forecast to lead foldable shipments this year with around 7.1 million devices, or 35.1% of the market. Huawei is expected to reach roughly five million units, putting Apple in contention for second place almost immediately.

The more important effect may be on the size and visibility of the category itself. Foldable phones have existed for years but remain a relatively small part of the overall smartphone business. Millions of iPhone users being introduced to the form factor through Apple’s ecosystem could expose foldables to a much wider mainstream audience.

Apple also brings its developer ecosystem with it. Apps adapting their interfaces for iPhone Duo’s larger folding display could create software ideas that influence how the wider category develops, particularly around multitasking and AI.

The timing is unusual

The forecast comes as the rest of the foldable market faces pressure. TrendForce expects global shipments of around 20.2 million units this year, with non-Apple foldable shipments declining sharply compared with 2025.

That creates the unusual possibility that Apple’s first foldable could simultaneously take market share from competitors and prevent the overall category from shrinking.

Forecasts already suggest iPhone Duo could capture almost a quarter of the market in 2026, despite being available for barely two months of the year.

Whether those projections hold will depend heavily on supply and whether consumers accept the $1,999 starting price. But Apple may not need to dominate foldables immediately for iPhone Duo to reshape the category. Simply bringing millions of existing iPhone customers into it could be enough.