TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who is usually fairly accurate when it comes to his predictions, has claimed Apple’s next-generation AirPods, dubbed AirPods 3, wouldn’t start mass production until the third quarter of 2021, seemingly squashing rumors of new models launching anytime soon.
According to Kuo’s latest investor note, seen by MacRumors, the analyst reports that Apple will likely see a decline in headphone shipments this year, with increasing competition expected to see AirPods shipments down from around 90 million in 2020 to around 78 million in 2021.
Recently we’ve seen several leakers claiming to show Apple’s unreleased AirPods 3, with images from Chinese language blog 52Audio on Friday allegedly revealing the full new redesign coming with the new earbuds, plus their updated charging case.
Image: 52audio
Reports have claimed that the new AirPods will feature the same Apple H1 chip and 5 hours of playback as the current-generation model. The main difference is said to be the AirPods Pro-style redesign, which will see Apple introduce a shorter stem, without interchangeable ear tips like the Pro model.
Kuo’s investor note contradicts with the flurry of reports we’ve seen over the past few weeks claiming new AirPods could be announced before the end of the month, with a trustworthy leaker saying recently that the new models are “ready to ship,” ahead of Apple’s rumored special event on March 23.
If AirPods 2 will go to end-of-life after AirPods 3’s mass production, we estimate AirPods 3, AirPods Pro, AirPods 2, and AirPods Max will account for about 40%, 28%, 31%, and 1% of total shipments, respectively, in 2021. If AirPods 2 will continue production after mass production of AirPods 3, we estimate AirPods 3, AirPods Pro, AirPods 2, and AirPods Max will account for about 32%, 28%, 39%, and 1% of total shipments in 2021, respectively.
If Kuo is correct, we could expect to see the AirPods 3 launch just before the holidays, likely around the same time as the iPhone 13 and next-generation Apple Watch.