Apple is expected to sell around 6 million iPhone Duo units before the end of 2026, according to a new forecast from Counterpoint Research, offering one of the first estimates of actual demand for Apple’s first foldable iPhone.
Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam told Bloomberg that the final figure will depend heavily on Apple’s ability to ramp up production of the new device.
The forecast is distinct from earlier reports about how many iPhone Duo units Apple intends to manufacture or have available. It estimates how many devices could actually be sold to customers during the remaining months of 2026.
At around 6 million units, iPhone Duo would represent a relatively small portion of Apple’s overall iPhone business, but a substantial volume within the still comparatively small foldable smartphone market.
Image: Apple
IDC estimates global foldable smartphone shipments will increase 13% this year to 22.9 million units, with Apple’s entry into the category helping drive that growth.
According to IDC, the foldable market would otherwise have declined without iPhone Duo.
Apple unveiled iPhone Duo on September 9 as its first foldable iPhone. The device starts at $1,999 in the United States and £1,999 in the United Kingdom, with pre-orders opening October 16 ahead of availability on October 23.
The relatively short sales window makes Counterpoint’s estimate particularly notable. Apple would have a little over two months between the iPhone Duo reaching customers and the end of the calendar year to reach the forecast.
Whether it can do so may depend as much on supply as demand.
Recent reports claim iPhone Duo production yields are currently just above 60%, potentially limiting how quickly Apple can build enough devices after launch.
Separate supply-chain reporting has suggested Apple wants to have between 6 million and 8 million iPhone Duo units available during 2026.
Counterpoint’s 6 million sales estimate sitting near the lower end of that reported production target suggests Apple may have little room for significant manufacturing disruption if demand reaches the research firm’s expectations.
The iPhone Duo is also expected to have an outsized impact on the wider foldable market despite its smaller volumes compared with conventional iPhones.
Image: Apple
Apple’s arrival gives the category a new high-profile entrant alongside established foldable manufacturers, potentially increasing consumer awareness of foldable phones more broadly.
Counterpoint’s forecast comes as Apple’s conventional premium iPhones are performing strongly in China.
The research firm says initial iPhone 18 Pro sales in China are running 12% ahead of the iPhone 17 Pro generation, helping Apple capture 33% of the country’s smartphone market during the measured period despite a broader decline among Chinese manufacturers.
For iPhone Duo, however, production remains the major unknown. With pre-orders still more than two weeks away, the first indication of whether Apple can approach 6 million sales this year may come from how quickly launch-day availability disappears once orders open.