Apple could take roughly a quarter of the global foldable smartphone market before 2026 is over, despite iPhone Duo not reaching customers until late October.
New estimates from TrendForce forecast Apple shipping around five million iPhone Duo units during 2026. That would translate to approximately 24.8% of global foldable smartphone shipments for the year.
The prediction is striking because Apple is entering the category years after rivals and will have only a short sales window before the end of December. iPhone Duo pre-orders begin October 16 before the device reaches customers on October 23.
Samsung is still expected to lead
Samsung is forecast to remain the largest foldable smartphone vendor in 2026, with around 7.1 million shipments and 35.1% market share. Huawei is projected to ship around five million devices, putting it roughly level with Apple’s forecast volume.
TrendForce expects the wider foldable market to reach approximately 20.2 million units in 2026, representing only modest overall growth. Excluding Apple, shipments from Android foldable manufacturers are forecast to fall by more than 20% year over year as component costs rise.
That means Apple’s arrival could account for a significant portion of the category’s overall performance this year rather than simply taking share from an otherwise rapidly growing market.
iPhone Duo enters at the premium end
Apple is not attempting to compete on price. iPhone Duo starts at $1,999, placing it firmly in the premium segment and making its projected five-million-unit volume particularly notable.
The company has made trade-offs to achieve the thin folding design, including Touch ID in place of Face ID and no dedicated periscope telephoto camera. Apple has described iPhone Duo as the result of years of development.
As reported by 9to5Mac, TrendForce’s forecast suggests Apple could establish itself as one of the three largest foldable phone vendors almost immediately after entering the category.